Asian financial crisis - exchange rate


Thailand has also seen a significant increase in household indebtedness since , by some 25 percentage points of GDP. Its size is even smaller and access beyond certain limits is also tied to the conclusion of an IMF programme. No regime of exchange rates can guarantee stable rates. Governments in several emerging economies have effectively stopped issuing foreign-currency debt in international markets. However, unlike other emerging economies which used monetary policy primarily for inflation targeting and left the currency to the whims of capital flows, most East Asian economies avoided significant currency appreciations despite strong surges in capital inflows. In reality, it served instead as a conduit for short term foreign lending to the liberalized Thai banks and finance houses. While this is the most widely used indicator of external sustainability, empirical evidence does not always show a strong correlation between pressure on reserves and short-term external debt. For more information, visit the cookies page. But they do not always leave much room to accommodate a sizeable and sustained exit of foreign investors from domestic securities and deposit markets and capital flight by residents.
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Local lending by foreign banks in all currencies, including foreign currencies, is now greater than their cross-border lending. In some respects the boom in capital flows in the new millennium has been somewhat better managed in East Asia than the boom of the s, and better than in most other emerging economies. In Indonesia half of banks are foreign. It is designed to complement rather than substitute the existing IMF facilities. Click on the green icon on the right. This article draws on various writings of the author including a recent book, Playing with Fire:
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Furthermore, unlike US treasuries, this debt is not in the hands of foreign central banks and other official bodies, but mostly in the portfolios of fickle investors. The proportion is much higher when internationally issued government debt is included. The self-insurance they have built up in international reserves may prove inadequate in the event of a sudden stop in capital inflows, massive exit of foreign investors and capital flight by residents. Recurrent currency, balance-of-payments and financial crises in emerging economies in the s and early s, including the Asian crisis, show that at times of surges in capital inflows, vulnerabilities can emerge in at least four areas: While this is the most widely used indicator of external sustainability, empirical evidence does not always show a strong correlation between pressure on reserves and short-term external debt. Thailand created the Bangkok International Banking Facility to intermediate foreign investment in the region. Consequently, the entry and exit of even relatively small amounts of foreign investment can result in large price swings.
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Description:Sovereign debt in many emerging economies is now internationalized to a greater extent. Vulnerability to liquidity and currency crises is not restricted to short-term foreign currency debt. That leaves two options in the event of a serious liquidity crisis — seek assistance from the IMF and central banks of reserve-currency countries, or engineer an unorthodox response, even going beyond what Malaysia did during the crisis, bailing in international creditors and investors by introducing, inter alia, exchange restrictions and temporary debt standstills, and using selective controls in trade and finance to safeguard economic activity and employment. The proportion is much higher when internationally issued government debt is included. An important part of capital inflows consisted of short term arbitrage funds seeking to profit from interest rate differentials. Domestically issued local-currency debt held by non-residents is not always included in external debt statistics even though according to the conventional definition based on the residency of holders, such debt is part of external debt. This means that the reduction in currency mismatches in balance sheets is largely limited to the sovereign while private corporations have been building up debt in low-interest reserve currencies very much in the same way as in the s. Similarly, some private firms in the region invested heavily in other non-traded activities, including infrastructure. Click on the green icon on the right. In the new millennium governments in many emerging economies have taken measures to remove vulnerabilities in some of these areas, particularly as they faced a new surge in capital inflows, first thanks to the very same credit and spending bubbles that culminated in a severe crisis in the US and Europe in and then the ultra-easy monetary policies pursued in these economies in response to the crisis.

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